'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Rajan has ignored pressure to loosen policy.
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday said it was starting to unwind some of the extraordinary policy easing and liquidity support measures taken to shore the economy up against the global credit crisis and economic slump.
Traders said increased buying by stockists and retailers mainly kept gold prices remain higher for the third day.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Titan, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and discussed a range of issues, including impact of geopolitical situation on global growth.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
In 2022, gold emerged as the top performer among all conventional asset classes with over 14 per cent returns mainly owing to the depreciation of the rupee.
Following another disappointing year in 2014, developing countries should see an uptick in growth this year, boosted in part by soft oil prices, a stronger US economy, continued low global interest rates, and receding domestic headwinds in several large emerging markets, it added.
Sectoral performance was mixed with media and PSU banking stocks attracting buyer interest and healthcare, FMCG and metal stocks bearing the brunt of the bears
'Some of the astounding proposals, if translated into statutory provisions, would be suicidal.' 'This would not be a wonder cure for increasing insurance penetration and only result in mushrooming growth of players like paan kiosks with deleterious consequences.'
India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
While there are certainly more hawks perched on monetary policy committees of central banks around the world now than a couple of months ago, the doves still have the upper hand.
After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
Domestic macroeconomic data, RBI policy and developments related to the Russia-Ukraine war would be major driving factors for the stock market this week, analysts said. Moreover, FPI investment and trends in crude oil would also influence the trading sentiment, they added. "This week, the RBI credit policy will be a critical factor for Indian markets.
A lot depends upon the composition of the monetary policy committee.
Equity benchmark Sensex tumbled over 575 points on Thursday, tracking heavy losses in index-heavyweights HDFC twins, TCS and Reliance Industries amid a weak trend in global markets. Declining for the third straight day, the 30-share Sensex slumped 575.46 points or 0.97 per cent to settle at 59,034.95. During the day, it tanked 633.06 points or 1.06 per cent to 58,977.35. The broader Nifty-50 also declined 168.10 points or 0.94 per cent to close at 17,639.55.
RBI has pegged the GVA growth of 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal and 7.9 per cent the year after
The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut policy rates by 0.25 per cent and keep the cash reserve ratio unchanged at its policy review next week, on the back of slower-than-expected growth and more encouraging inflation readings, says a report by HSBC.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the country is at the doorstep of economic revival on the back of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies being pursued by the central bank and the government.
'Making money in such markets is typically harder and investors need to put in considerable effort to identify stock ideas over the year.'
While RBI may cut rates by 25 basis points in the February policy review, global monetary policies hold the key to much of the financial assets flow in 2017
Retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35 per cent in September from 7.27 per cent in the year-ago period as prices of vegetables and other items declined, according to government data released on Tuesday. The moderation in Consumer Price Index-based inflation is in line with the assessment of Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das who recently projected substantial softening of retail inflation. The CPI inflation was at 5.3 per cent in August and at 7.27 per cent in September 2020.
'Normally, the system is geared towards counting notes -- it is equipped to do x amount of work and one day you are asking them to do 20 x.' 'The processes involved are very complex.'
Among the Sensex pack, Yes Bank, L&T, HDFC, RIL, HDFC Bank, PowerGrid and Coal India were the biggest losers -- falling up to 2.43 per cent.
Bank Nifty pared all its intraday gains to end over 1% lower led by losses in BoB, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and Bank of India
Minutes of the MPC meeting show Das felt economy needs more monetary stimulus as inflation outlook remains uncertain.
Issuers are currently not comfortable with the bids they have been getting for their bond offerings.
Market breadth depicted gains with 1,476 advances over 1,403 declines on the BSE. 140 stocks remained unchanged.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
The minutes of the December MPC meet reveal members felt the current spike in the headline inflation rate was due to a temporary supply shock on the food front, expected to moderate by the second quarter of 2020-21.
The rupee extended its losses and slipped 12 paise to 77.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday, weighed down by a muted trend in domestic equities and unabated foreign fund outflows. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 77.72 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 77.74, registering a fall of 12 paise from the last close. On Wednesday, the rupee declined by 1?7 paise to close at its fresh lifetime low of 77.6?1 against the US dollar.
The RBI on Friday said the impact of coronavirus outbreak on the economy will depend on the intensity, spread and duration of the deadly virus even as the central bank refrained from projecting any numbers for growth and inflation amid the widespread uncertainty. While announcing the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that in view of the impact of coronavirus pandemic, the growth projections for 4.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2019-20 and 5 per cent for the full fiscal are "now at risk".
Taking on board India's concerns, the G-20 Summit on Friday acknowledged that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates can affect economic and financial stability of emerging markets and called for sound policies to address it.
Accelerating inequality, the market dominance of tech platforms and remote working are likely to be the longest-lasting legacies of the COVID-19 crisis, the WEF said in a report on Monday. Releasing its Chief Economists Outlook report during the online Davos Agenda Summit, the WEF said that beyond managing the pandemic and vaccine rollout, these trends could shape a new era of fiscal, monetary, and competition policy. Deglobalisation is seen as the least likely of the current trends to continue in the longer term; particularly as international coordination is key to resolving global challenges such as vaccine manufacturing and distribution.
'The global situation is not very good.'
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, PowerGrid and Bajaj Finserve gained up to 2.01 per cent. On the other hand, bellwether stocks such as ITC, Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra and Reliance were the laggards. ITC shares closed the session with a loss of 3.87 per cent lower and Reliance ended 1.92 per cent lower.
The declining inflation and a negative industrial outlook have strengthened the case for RBI.
